Food security and the pressure it places on land use and management is fast becoming one of the defining issues of our time. The equation is simple: based on population forecasts and current crop yields, global food production needs to increase 50 per cent in the next 30 years.
As a temperate country, there is a persuasive argument the UK has a global social responsibility to work towards self sufficiency. Not only to secure our own supplies, but to ensure we are not a burden on countries where global warming could curb productivity; currently the UK is about 60 per cent self sufficient, so there is some way to go.
Our major limiting factor is food-growing land. The UK’s large population – 61m and counting – means the pressure is huge. Housing and building, energy, infrastructure development and protection of our natural environment and biodiversity all clamour for space.
Food security is a fundamental issue that requires fundamental solutions. This is where there are grounds for cautious optimism. In the long term, in an ADAS’ report* for the Government’s chief scientific advisor, Prof John Beddington, we identified theoretical scope to grow more food on the same area of land with beneficial environmental impacts.
Advances in husbandry, including more and better irrigation, improved machinery and automation, genetic innovation (including conventional breeding and biotechnology), better land use, intelligent use of chemistry and the adoption of integrated measures against disease, pests and weeds, means yields of wheat and oilseed rape could be increased by about 70 per cent. Simultaneously, greenhouse gas intensities and other undesirable emissions could be reduced. Some advances we are already exploring – others have yet to be addressed.
If commodity prices are stabilised at higher levels – i.e. farms more regularly make profits – farming and the supply industry – as well as government – should be able to invest to address the fundamental challenge of sustainable productivity.
We therefore have qualified optimism for solving a deeply worrying problem – large production gains could be made without compromising the environment, through numerous gains and some major strategic improvements. But if we are to turn theory into reality, careful planning, prioritisation and targeted investment will be required, to identify the key developments and to advance them as quickly as possible.
For more information, contact Roger Sylvester-Bradley on 01954 268253 or e-mail roger.sylvester-bradley@adas.co.uk.
* The potential to increase productivity of wheat and oilseed rape in the UK. Report for the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor John Beddington. Available via this link.